Title : How the polls got it so wrong predicting a Labor victory
link : How the polls got it so wrong predicting a Labor victory
How the polls got it so wrong predicting a Labor victory
It was predicted to be the federal election Labor simply couldn't lose, but after last night's surprise Coalition win, the opinion poll may struggle to stand the test of time.
Key points:
- Years of polling predicted a Labor victory with exit polls putting Bill Shorten in front by 52-48
- Former Newspoll boss said robocalls and internet polling have led to inaccuracies
- ABC election analyst Antony Green says there could be less polling in future elections
Experts say cost cutting and technological change in the polling process is leading to many inaccurate and misleading suggestions.
Nearly all polls predicted Bill Shorten would have an easy win with a 51:49 lead over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a two-party preferred basis.
In fact, for three years the polls had picked the Opposition to take government.
Instead it was a shock loss for Labor who was hit by a blue sweep through Queensland, less than desirable results in Victoria and a return to the status quo in Western Australia.
So why exactly were the polls, as ABC political editor Andrew Probyn put it last night, such a "shambles"?
Former Newspoll boss Martin O'Shannessy blamed the flawed forecasting on the fact that many people's telephone habits have changed.
"The reason that it's hard to do good telephone polling is because the old White Pages — the phone book — doesn't exist anymore," he said.
"Not everybody has a landline and the numbers that are published are incomplete."
Read analysis about the federal election:
Mr O'Shannessy said until he left Newspoll in 2015, the company had used probability sampling — where a random sample of telephone numbers are called across the country to reflect the population.
"It was successful because it allowed every potential voter to have a say in the poll," he said.
ABC election analyst Antony Green agreed the sampling used to be much more reliable.
"They switched from an operator asking questions to randomly calling mobile numbers and robocalls," he said.
"There has been a drop off in response rates and there has also been a drop off in the quality of the data."
Social media the answer?
One man who did predict a Scott Morrison stay said traditional polling was past its used by date.
Data mining expert from Griffith University Professor Bela Stantic, who predicted Donald Trump's election to US presidency and Brexit, uses his own methods to gauge opinion.
"I am able to assess the opinions of people through their social media … other polling has a much smaller sample.
"I must [just] be careful of fake news."
Through his own independent research, Professor Stantic analysed 2 million social media comments relating to key terms and predicted Labor would not pick up the key seats needed.
Mr O'Shannessy said news polls could be more accurate if the industry was able to access the Government's Integrated Public Number Database (IPND) — which contains all listed and unlisted numbers across the country and is used by emergency services and law enforcement.
Marketing and polling companies have been lobbying the Government over the issue for a decade, arguing access would provide better information on the country's need for government services.
Until then, Antony Green believes there could be fewer polls in future elections.
"We saw a lot fewer polls in this election campaign than previous campaigns because media outlets don't have the money they used to," he said.
"Perhaps we will see a change in how many polls are done in the future … but it's always up to people whether they trust them or not."
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