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Title : Retail sector keeps lagging as business conditions stay steady: NAB survey
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Retail sector keeps lagging as business conditions stay steady: NAB survey

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Business conditions stabilised in June after a sharp fall the previous month, but the retail sector remained "noticeably weaker" than other industries.

NAB's monthly business survey showed conditions edging slightly higher, while confidence declined slightly.

"[The business conditions index] remains well above average, suggesting conditions are strong in the business sector," said NAB chief economist Alan Oster.

"Conditions remain favourable across most states and industries."

Retail was the notable exception, with conditions in the sector remaining weaker.

Retail cash flow was below other industries, which NAB said likely reflects "the ongoing structural issues facing the sector", such as increased competition from overseas entrants and online sales, while retail prices were unchanged in the month.

"Conditions in the mining sector remain highest even as the mining boom continues wind down," said Mr Oster.

"The construction sector is also reporting robust conditions reflecting the large pipeline of infrastructure work and significant pipeline of housing construction underway."

Wages remain weak but NAB sees gradual pickup

Th employment index of the survey fell for a second straight month but remains above average.

NAB expects this to see the unemployment rate decline and wages growth pickup over 2018 — despite businesses' labour costs edging lower in June.

"The survey continues to suggest relatively robust growth in the economy but also suggests that broader inflationary pressures remain weak," said Mr Oster.

"This growth will be necessary to reduce the amount of spare capacity in the economy, which should in time see a rise in prices and wages growth, which we consider key to the path of monetary policy over the next few years."

In its statement following the decision to keep interest rates on hold last week, the Reserve Bank said weak wages growth is likely to continue for a while to come but appears to have "troughed", amid growing reports of skills shortages in some areas.

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